The West must put aside mutual mistrust and work with Russia if it is to defeat ISIL in Syria, according to a survey of policy insiders across Europe and America.
This week, as the EU extended sanctions against Russia for six months, the POLITICO Transatlantic Caucus polled 76 diplomats, elected officials and advisers, who wrote candidly on condition they be quoted anonymously. The group generally agreed a diplomatic solution to the Syrian conflict was key to stopping ISIL, but were split on whether the West’s relationship with Russia would improve in 2016, as well as on U.S. President Barack Obama’s handling of foreign policy.
Thirty-three percent saw migration as the biggest threat facing the EU, continuing a trend from the October poll, followed by Islamist terrorism (15 percent) and the rise of populist parties and threats to democracy (12 percent).
The Caucus includes NATO Deputy Secretary-General Alexander Vershbow, five countries’ ambassadors to the EU, former World Bank President Paul Wolfowitz, President of the Eurogroup Working Group Thomas Wieser, and Republican U.S. Congressman Reid Ribble. A full list of participants is here.
“It is time to put an end to the sanctions against Russia and to build up instead a strategic partnership,” said one Caucus member. Another argued that it is sanctions, coupled with “economic pressures on Russia due to the low oil price,” that “will push it towards more cooperation with the West.”
Fifty-three percent believe the best way to deal with ISIL in Syria is to work with Russia and Iran on a diplomatic deal with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
“The air campaign, two-pronged and uncoordinated as it is, will be counterproductive,” said one Caucus participant. “An anti-[ISIL] alliance, including Turkey, needs to be forged following which further direct military action beyond just airstrikes could be launched.”
Just 16 percent of Caucus members favored putting NATO boots on the ground in Syria. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry was in Moscow last week for talks aimed at finding common ground with Russia on Syria, while a U.N. Security Council resolution passed Friday called for a ceasefire and peace talks between Assad and anti-regime rebels, who have also been targeted in Russian airstrikes.
A U.S. State Department spokesman said last week that “nobody’s given up on the notion that Assad has to go,” but Western officials conceded the Syrian leader may be allowed to retire to either of his principal backers Russia or Iran, rather than face war crimes charges in the Hague.
“It should be made clear that it is not because we suddenly approve of Assad,” said one Caucus member of the need for a diplomatic push, “but there is simply a greater challenge.”
Others were less optimistic about collaboration with the Kremlin.
“Russia is a basket case whose only agenda is nuisance,” said one participant. “Russia never treats an entity smaller than itself as an equal partner. The fact that Russia, with a population less than a third that of the EU’s, and an economy one-eighth the size of the EU’s, manages to push the EU around speaks volumes [about] the historic lack of ability among the EU heads of state.”
Click Here: United Kingdom Rugby Jerseys
Obama’s performance also split the group, with 51 percent approving of his handling of American foreign policy in 2015.
The U.S. president deserved some credit for the Iran nuclear deal and the Paris climate accord, they said, but was also labeled “indecisive, excessively cautious,” “confused, not taking into account long-term scenarios,” and “too wishy-washy on Syria and [ISIL].”
“Why not accept that a strong Assad is better than [ISIL]?” one asked.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel — Time magazine’s Person of the Year and the weather vane for Europe’s response to everything from the migration crisis to Grexit — won the most support (40 percent) as the leader to watch in 2016.
“She does not have a real challenger in Germany,” as one Caucus member put it, “and Germany does not have a real challenger in Europe.”
Meanwhile in Brussels, approval ratings for the main players from each EU institution have fallen since October.
Forty-seven percent marked European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker’s performance good or very good, down from 65 percent in October. Twenty-seven percent rated the efforts of European Council President Donald Tusk as poor or very poor, compared with 22 percent last time. Those close to the former Polish prime minister acknowledged in a POLITICO profile in October that he has had a slow start and steep learning curve in his first year.
One of Tusk’s main challenges in early 2016 will be Britain’s attempt to renegotiate its relationship with the EU. Ninety percent of the POLITICO Caucus agreed that Europe would be weaker without the U.K., where polls show support for an Out vote gathering momentum.
“[The] U.K. leaving would be a watershed event for the EU, and might lead to it all unraveling over a period of time,” one Caucus participant said, while another added Britain’s “economic and cultural energy … and obviously it’s political significance” account for much of Europe’s global clout.
But “Brexit will be far worse for Britain than for the EU,” another argued.
At last week’s EU summit, British Prime Minister David Cameron said he saw a “pathway” to an agreement with member countries, though he would not compromise on a controversial push to withhold in-work benefits for EU migrants for four years.
“If some member states do not want to obey the same rules,” one Caucus member responded, “I would not see a problem in letting Britain go.”
To see more results from POLTICO’s Transatlantic Caucus, click here.
Laurens Cerulus contributed to this article.
This article has been corrected to reflect that since November 2015 Dr. Péter Györkös is the Ambassador of Hungary to Germany.